Seasonal and Regional Variations in Rainfall Distribution Over the Punjab-Pakistan

Abstract

The purpose of present study is to investigate district and division wise annual  rainfall variations over the province of Punjab, which is the largest in terms of population size as well important contributor in agricultural produce in Pakistan. The results revealed that the rainfall trend has shifted from upper and lower Punjab towards the south, west, north and east respectively. The statistical analysis has inferred an overall increasing trend for the period 1990 to 2000 and a decreasing trend during period 2001 to 2010 in Punjab province. The Z test value differences in the average rainfall for each district level meteorological station have detected three increasing and two decreasing trends during summers of 1981-2015.The data revealed a significant changed seasonal trend observed in Murree and Sialkot (northern Punjab), Faisalabad and Lahore (central Punjab). Particularly, the changes have been observed in the south Punjab and over the central Punjab, while the same rainfall variations have shown a southward shift. The trend of the rainfall had shifted in the Faisalabad division with the significant positive trend. In the Central Punjab, the positive trend has also been found in all the districts. In the lower Punjab, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan districts has shown an increasing trend of rainfall. The findings are significant in changing agro-climatic zones in the Punjab and consequent shifting patterns of agriculture  therefore can have net impact on the food security situation in the Punjab-Pakistan.