Precipitation and Temperature Oscillation and its Effects on the Flow of Indus Water System and Adaptation in the Arid Region, Pakistan (1940-2000)

Abstract

The study evaluates the water discharge of the Indus and its sub-rivers in the arid region of Pakistan from 1940-2004 using the annual changes in addition to seasonal flux and inconsistencies in culmination of the water flow. Currently, in Pakistan, the gross per capita water availability shows notable dwindle during 1951 till 2000. Owing to decline in precipitation (0.6inch or 15.2mm) and amplify in degree of hotness of 1.6⁰C for the period of 1960-2000, the water discharge throughout Pakistan particularly in the arid region reveals a susceptible stipulation from 1940-2004. During Rabi season, the decline in the water discharge of the Indus River and its tributaries show a drastic decline/reduction, while it remains stable in Kharif season and could do with adaptation instantly. The annual water discharge indicates a positive deviation in the Kabul River, while it is negative in Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, and Ravi rivers. Most of the rivers in Baluchistan are altered into seasonal torrents and the water scarcity for agriculture sector and domestic use will be at climax in the future. The decrease in the water discharge of the Indus drainage system will influence the crop pattern and its production in the rain fed as well as canals fed arid areas in the lower Punjab and Sindh province. The specific adaptations to cope with the problem are, improvement in the irrigation system, edifice of new water dams and reservoirs, construction of water course guards, innovation in sanitation and sewerage system, public awareness, policy and implementation, establishment of research and development fund, crop choices, glacier retreat and planning for water resources.