Monte Carlo Simulation and Scenario Analysis Based Limestone Quarry Production Planning

Abstract

The key factor behind raw mix design in the cement factory is the appropriate production planning, resulting
in high-quality raw material. Quarry managers usually come up with uncertainty-related raw materials due to variations
in chemical composition. These uncertainties required efficient planning in terms of useful insight into this problem.
This research provides a detailed explanation of scenario analysis of raw materials used in cement manufacturing using
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and indices. Scenario analysis is used to predict the possibility of best, worst and most
likely cases of raw material’s quality. Whereas, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the inherent uncertainty
associated with chemical composition values in order to analyze the impact of truly unpredictable scenarios. The
predictive results help in decisions related to production planning, raw mix design optimization and increasing the
probability of designing the best plan.